Market Update · November 2, 2026
Contracts are at a record low. Here’s how to sell or buy in LA and OC this winter.
Nationally, signed contracts fell 7.3% in September to a record low, and the West led the decline at 15% below last year. Orange County pending sales have dropped five straight weeks. If you’re thinking about listing before the holidays or shopping while others sit out, here’s what we’re telling clients.
The numbers
Fewer contracts, from the nation down to OC
West pending sales: down 15%
NAR’s September pending home sales index fell 7.3% from August and 11.3% from a year earlier, a record low. The West had the biggest drop: 9.2% for the month and 15.0% versus last year.
OC: 1,522 pending, five weeks of declines
Orange County pending and under-contract homes slid to 1,522 in the week ending Oct. 26, with about 5,054 active listings. Median days on market was 47.
Rates: 7.24%, not a reset
Freddie Mac’s 30-year average eased to 7.24% on Oct. 29 from 7.40% two weeks earlier, but it was 6.17% a year ago. NAR’s chief economist noted buyers and sellers may be waiting for rates to improve.
If you’re selling
Listing before the holidays: the case for going now
Fewer buyers, but also fewer competing homes later
Many sellers wait for spring, which means the buyers who are still active right now see less to choose from. A well-priced home can stand out in November and December.
Price to the sold comps, not the neighbor’s ask
With contracts at record lows, asking prices lag reality. Anchor your price to what homes in your neighborhood actually closed for in the last 30–60 days.
Weigh the cost of waiting
Waiting until March means three or four more months of mortgage, taxes and insurance. On a $1.4M home, that can run well into five figures, which is often more than a small price adjustment now.
If you’re buying
Winter is when serious buyers get leverage
Less competition at the table
When fewer contracts are being signed, sellers see fewer offers. Expect more room on price, repairs and timing than in spring, especially on homes that have sat past the 47-day median.
Ask for credits that cut your payment
At 7.24%, a seller credit toward a rate buydown can lower your monthly payment about as much as a price cut. We’ll model both side by side.
Be ready to move
Well-priced, move-in-ready homes still draw offers. Get pre-approved, know your payment ceiling, and be ready to act when the right house appears.
Investing or flipping in SoCal?
If you’re buying to renovate and resell, our partner platform FlipOS ↗︎ helps investors analyze deals and manage flips. With contract activity at a record low, build extra hold time and a concession line into any winter exit.
Not sure whether to list now or wait?
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National and regional pending sales: NAR Pending Home Sales, September 2026 (Oct. 20, 2026); the West region covers more than Southern California. OC pending, listings and days on market: OC Real Estate Inc. weekly report, week ending Oct. 26, 2026 (one week of data is a small sample). Rates: Freddie Mac weekly survey, Oct. 29, 2026. Real estate data is regional and changes quickly — contact us for current numbers on your specific home or target neighborhood.