Market Update · September 28, 2026
Same rates, two very different markets.
Los Angeles County is still selling like a seller's market. Orange County is cooling — especially under $1M, where the jump past 7% is hitting hardest. If you're buying or selling this fall, which county you're in matters more than usual right now.
The numbers
Two counties, two stories
LA County: still a seller's market
Median sale price $921,915 (up 1.4% year over year), median 49 days on market — down from 51 a year ago — and homes selling at 99.5% of list price. Only about 17% of listings have taken a price cut.
OC: cooling, especially under $1M
Median sale price $1.5M, down from $1.55M the week before. Days on market rose to 46 (median) and 65 (average), and homes pending under contract fell below 1,800 for the first time since February.
Rates: a one-year high
The 30-year fixed averaged 7.23% as of September 25 — up from 7.07% the week before and the highest in a year, after the Fed's latest rate hike.
What's going on
Why the same rate is hitting each county differently
LA: demand still outruns supply
Over 37% of LA County sales are still closing above list price, and inventory hasn't built up the way OC's has. Buyers there are still competing for what's available.
OC's under-$1M buyer feels it first
OC's entry-level segment — the buyer most sensitive to a payment jump — is where days on market and inventory are climbing fastest as rates near 7.25%.
Pending sales are the tell
When active listings rise while pending contracts fall, that widening gap is usually the clearest early sign a market is slowing — and OC is showing exactly that pattern this month.
If you're selling
Price to your county's actual market
In LA: you likely still have leverage
Multiple offers and near-full asking price are still common. Price to recent sold comps and you're still in a strong position — don't leave money on the table by underpricing out of caution.
In OC under $1M: price sharper, sooner
This segment is where buyers now have the most room to negotiate. The first two weeks on market matter most — an aggressive, comp-based list price beats a hopeful one that needs a cut in week four.
Everywhere: lead with the payment
At 7.23%, a credit toward a buyer's rate buydown can move a deal that a price cut alone won't. We'll run both numbers for your specific listing.
If you're buying
Where the opportunity is
OC under $1M: more room to negotiate
Rising inventory and falling pending sales in this segment mean sellers are more open to concessions on price, credits, and repairs than they were over the summer.
LA: be ready to move fast
With homes still selling near list price and above, get fully pre-approved and have your offer terms ready before you find the right home — hesitation costs you the good ones.
Shop the payment, not just the price
At a one-year rate high, comparing the true monthly cost across a few homes — including any seller credit toward your rate — matters as much as the sale price itself.
Buying to renovate and resell?
A cooling segment is often where investors find the best margins. Our partner platform FlipOS ↗︎ helps you run the numbers on a property before you make an offer.
Wondering what this means for your neighborhood?
LA and OC aren't moving together right now — and neither are the neighborhoods within them. We'll walk you through the real numbers for your street.
Get my home valueSources
Figures as of late September 2026, from Redfin's Los Angeles County housing market data, public Orange County market reporting (active and pending listings, days on market by price band), and Freddie Mac / Forbes Advisor mortgage rate tracking. Local conditions vary by street — contact us for numbers on your specific home or target neighborhood.